LAHORE – Despite US President Trump’s tariffs continuing to impact trade flows significantly, business leaders remain cautiously optimistic about global trade prospects for their companies.
During one of the most turbulent periods for global trade in decades, business leaders and finance professionals were surveyed and interviewed for a significant report titled “The Outlook for Global Trade: Perspectives from Business Leaders.” This report was produced by the leading global accountancy organization, ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants).
While 85% of respondents were concerned about the impacts of tariffs on their organisations, the results show company bosses are surprisingly positive about the future. The survey found optimistic views, with 56% of respondents expecting their organisations to increase their amount of global trade ‘significantly’ or ‘somewhat’ in the next three to five years. While less optimistically, 23% expected trade to decrease ‘somewhat’ or ‘significantly’.
A majority of C-suite executives were even more positive about the future, with 38% and 29% of respondents respectively expecting their firm’s amount of global trade to increase ‘significantly’ or ‘somewhat’.
Jonathan Ashworth, Chief Economist, ACCA, said: ‘2025 has been a monumental year for international trade, with the US raising its import tariffs to their highest level since the 1930s.
‘The global economy has so far proved more resilient than expected to the disruptions in global trade, but the risk is for some slowing over the coming quarters. Nevertheless, the survey results suggest that business leaders appear relatively optimistic about their enterprises’ medium-term trade prospects, and they are overwhelmingly positive about the benefits of an open global trading system.’
From our own interviews with business leaders and policy experts, it seems that they are not expecting an outright fall in global trade. However, rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions were clearly seen as important headwinds for its future growth. Rising tariffs were not viewed as the only friction in international trade; sanctions were also cited as a key issue.’
Perhaps it was not surprising that ‘geopolitical tensions’, ‘international or civil conflicts/wars’, and ‘protectionist policies in advanced economies’ were viewed as the top three risks. Business leaders were equally clear on the top three opportunities as well, which may in part explain their optimism for the future. Firmly in first place, cited by half of all respondents, was to ‘use technology (e.g., AI) to help facilitate global trade’, followed by ‘diversifying production, investment, or location of suppliers’ and ‘gain access to new technologies’.
The major changes in US trade policy could have profound impacts on future global trade patterns and flows. The survey revealed that 60% of organisations have already moved the location of some of their production, investment, or suppliers in recent years, and 61% say they are likely to do so in the next few years.
The research also flagged another danger: economists warn that a less open and more fragmented global trading system is likely to push up prices, and this was confirmed by the survey. Around 35% of respondents report that their organisation’s costs are likely to increase by more than 10% due to changes in global trade in the coming years, while 46% expect them to increase by up to 10%. 11% expect them to stay the same, while just 6% expect them to decrease.
