ISLAMABAD – Pakistan’s electricity sector is facing a significant data gap in rooftop solar adoption, with actual installed capacity estimated to be nearly twice the officially documented figures, according to a new report.
A joint study by HeraldX and Renewables First, titled “The Uncounted Gigawatts: Distributed Solar Mapping and Grid Impact Analysis in Pakistan”, uses artificial intelligence and power system modelling to evaluate the scale and operational impact of distributed solar generation.
The report estimates that national rooftop and distributed solar capacity stands at around 38 gigawatts, significantly higher than what is reflected in official datasets.
In Lahore, the AI model identified 177MW of rooftop solar capacity compared to an official estimate of 95MW, pointing to substantial gaps in reporting and registration, particularly for systems outside or partially outside net-metering frameworks.
The study notes that this unrecorded capacity is already influencing grid behaviour, despite remaining largely invisible to planners and distribution companies.
Using PSS/E simulation software, researchers compared grid performance under recorded and actual solar penetration levels, finding increased reverse power flows and a rise in transformer loading from 34 per cent to 76 per cent during daytime conditions.
Voltage levels were also found to exceed Grid Code 2023 compliance thresholds under both scenarios, indicating mounting stress on distribution infrastructure.
The report further states that while a simulated 10MW battery energy storage system helped improve voltage stability and reduce reverse flows, it also led to power factor deterioration in lower solar penetration conditions, suggesting storage alone cannot address the challenge.
According to the researchers, the AI model was trained on Pakistan-specific rooftop imagery to improve accuracy, unlike generic international datasets.
The report calls for urgent adoption of updated monitoring systems and planning tools, warning that the widening gap between recorded and actual solar capacity poses risks for distribution companies and grid operators.
